UK Ofqual's Algorithm Disproportionately Provided Lower Grades Than Teachers' Assessments

In 2020, due to COVID-19 school closures, the UK's Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation (Ofqual) developed an algorithm to determine A-level and GCSE exam grades for students unable to sit traditional exams. The algorithm used teacher rankings of students within each subject and school, combined with each school's historical performance over the previous three years (2017-2019), to generate standardized grades. The system was designed to prevent grade inflation and maintain consistency with previous years' results. When A-level results were announced on August 13, 2020, nearly 40% of grades were downgraded from teacher predictions, with 35.6% reduced by one grade and 3.3% by two grades. The algorithm disproportionately affected state schools, where comprehensive schools saw grade increases of only 2% compared to 4.7% for private schools. This occurred because private schools typically had smaller class sizes (under 15 students per subject received teacher-assessed grades) and historically better performance records that the algorithm favored. Following widespread protests, legal challenges, and criticism from MPs, the government reversed course on August 17, 2020, announcing that students would receive teacher-assessed grades instead. Similar issues occurred with GCSE results, affecting approximately 4.6 million grades (97% of total) that were determined solely by the algorithm. The incident led to university admission chaos, with 15,000 students suddenly qualifying for their first-choice universities, and calls for resignations of Education Secretary Gavin Williamson and Ofqual officials.