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AI-induced strategic instability
Increased power concentration and inequa…

Resource conflicts driven by AI development

A Survey of the Potential Long-term Impacts of AI: How AI Could Lead to Long-term Changes in Science, Cooperation, Power, Epistemics and Values

Sub-category
Risk Domain
6Socioeconomic & Environmental
6.4Competitive dynamics

AI developers or state-like actors competing in an AI ‘race’ by rapidly developing, deploying, and applying AI systems to maximize strategic or economic advantage, increasing the risk they release unsafe and error-prone systems.

"AI development may itself become a new flash point for conflicts—causing more conflict to occur— especially conflicts over AI-relevant resources (such as data centres, semiconductor manufacturing facilities and raw materials)."(p. 4)

Entity— Who or what caused the harm

Human

Due to a decision or action made by humans

AI system

Due to a decision or action made by an AI system

Other

Due to some other reason or is ambiguous

Intent— Whether the harm was intentional or accidental

Intentional

Due to an expected outcome from pursuing a goal

Unintentional

Due to an unexpected outcome from pursuing a goal

Other

Without clearly specifying the intentionality

Timing— Whether the risk is pre- or post-deployment

Pre-deployment

Occurring before the AI is deployed

Post-deployment

Occurring after the AI model has been trained and deployed

Other

Without a clearly specified time of occurrence

Part of Worsened conflict

Other risks from Clarke2023 (19)

Worsened conflict

6.4 Competitive dynamics
HumanOtherOther

Worsened conflict > AI enables development of weapons of mass destruction

4.2 Cyberattacks, weapon development or use, and mass harm
HumanIntentionalPost-deployment

Worsened conflict > AI enables automation of military decision-making

5.2 Loss of human agency and autonomy
AI systemUnintentionalPost-deployment

Worsened conflict > AI-induced strategic instability

5.2 Loss of human agency and autonomy
AI systemUnintentionalPost-deployment

Increased power concentration and inequality

6.1 Power centralization and unfair distribution of benefits
AI systemUnintentionalPost-deployment

Increased power concentration and inequality > Unequal distribution of harms and benefits

6.1 Power centralization and unfair distribution of benefits
HumanIntentionalOther
View all 19 risks from this paper →