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Concentration of Power
Military AI Arms Race

AI Race (Environmental/Structural)

An Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks

Hendrycks, Mazzeika & Woodside (2023)

SourceDOI
Category
Risk Domain
6Socioeconomic & Environmental
6.4Competitive dynamics

AI developers or state-like actors competing in an AI ‘race’ by rapidly developing, deploying, and applying AI systems to maximize strategic or economic advantage, increasing the risk they release unsafe and error-prone systems.

"The immense potential of AIs has created competitive pressures among global players contending for power and influence. This “AI race” is driven by nations and corporations who feel they must rapidly build and deploy AIs to secure their positions and survive."(p. 13)

Entity— Who or what caused the harm

Human

Due to a decision or action made by humans

AI system

Due to a decision or action made by an AI system

Other

Due to some other reason or is ambiguous

Intent— Whether the harm was intentional or accidental

Intentional

Due to an expected outcome from pursuing a goal

Unintentional

Due to an unexpected outcome from pursuing a goal

Other

Without clearly specifying the intentionality

Timing— Whether the risk is pre- or post-deployment

Pre-deployment

Occurring before the AI is deployed

Post-deployment

Occurring after the AI model has been trained and deployed

Other

Without a clearly specified time of occurrence

Sub-categories (2)

Military AI Arms Race

"The development of AIs for military applications is swiftly paving the way for a new era in military technology, with potential consequences rivaling those of gunpowder and nuclear arms in what has been described as the “third revolution in warfare.”

6.4 Competitive dynamics
HumanIntentionalOther

Corporate AI Race

"Although competition between companies can be beneficial, creating more useful products for consumers, there are also pitfalls. First, the benefits of economic activity may be unevenly distributed, incentivizing those who benefit most from it to disregard the harms to others. Second, under intense market competition, businesses tend to focus much more on short-term gains than on long-term outcomes. With this mindset, companies often pursue something that can make a lot of profit in the short term, even if it poses a societal risk in the long term."

6.4 Competitive dynamics
HumanUnintentionalOther

Other risks from Hendrycks, Mazzeika & Woodside (2023) (13)

Malicious Use (Intentional)

4.0 Malicious Actors & Misuse
HumanIntentionalPost-deployment

Malicious Use (Intentional) > Bioterrorism

4.2 Cyberattacks, weapon development or use, and mass harm
AI systemIntentionalPost-deployment

Malicious Use (Intentional) > Unleashing AI Agents

4.2 Cyberattacks, weapon development or use, and mass harm
HumanIntentionalPre-deployment

Malicious Use (Intentional) > Persuasive AIs

4.1 Disinformation, surveillance, and influence at scale
AI systemOtherPost-deployment

Malicious Use (Intentional) > Concentration of Power

6.1 Power centralization and unfair distribution of benefits
HumanIntentionalOther

Rogue AIs (Internal)

7.1 AI pursuing its own goals in conflict with human goals or values
AI systemIntentionalOther
View all 13 risks from this paper →