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Security & Defense

The Rise of Artificial Intelligence - Future Outlooks and Emerging Risks

Allianz Global Corporate and Specialty (2018)

Source
Category
Risk Domain
4Malicious Actors & Misuse
4.2Cyberattacks, weapon development or use, and mass harm

Using AI systems to develop cyber weapons (e.g., by coding cheaper, more effective malware), develop new or enhance existing weapons (e.g., Lethal Autonomous Weapons or chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and high-yield explosives), or use weapons to cause mass harm.

"AI could enable more serious incidents to occur by lowering the cost of devising cyber-attacks and enabling more targeted incidents. The same programming error or hacker attack could be replicated on numerous machines. Or one machine could repeat the same erroneous activity several times, leading to an unforeseen accumulation of losses."(p. 7)

Entity— Who or what caused the harm

Human

Due to a decision or action made by humans

AI system

Due to a decision or action made by an AI system

Other

Due to some other reason or is ambiguous

Intent— Whether the harm was intentional or accidental

Intentional

Due to an expected outcome from pursuing a goal

Unintentional

Due to an unexpected outcome from pursuing a goal

Other

Without clearly specifying the intentionality

Timing— Whether the risk is pre- or post-deployment

Pre-deployment

Occurring before the AI is deployed

Post-deployment

Occurring after the AI model has been trained and deployed

Other

Without a clearly specified time of occurrence

Sub-categories (1)

Catastrophic risk due to autonomous weapons programmed with dangerous targets

"AI could enable autonomous vehicles, such as drones, to be utilized as weapons. Such threats are often underestimated."

4.2 Cyberattacks, weapon development or use, and mass harm
HumanIntentionalPost-deployment

Other risks from Allianz Global Corporate and Specialty (2018) (13)

Economic

6.2 Increased inequality and decline in employment quality
AI systemIntentionalPost-deployment

Economic > Increased income disparity

6.2 Increased inequality and decline in employment quality
AI systemOtherPost-deployment

Political

4.1 Disinformation, surveillance, and influence at scale
HumanIntentionalPost-deployment

Political > Biased influence through citizen screening and tailored propaganda

4.1 Disinformation, surveillance, and influence at scale
HumanIntentionalPost-deployment

Political > Potential exploitation by totalitarian regimes

6.1 Power centralization and unfair distribution of benefits
HumanIntentionalPost-deployment

Mobility

6.5 Governance failure
AI systemUnintentionalPost-deployment
View all 13 risks from this paper →