BackEased development of technologies that make a global catastrophe more likely
Eased development of technologies that make a global catastrophe more likely
A Survey of the Potential Long-term Impacts of AI: How AI Could Lead to Long-term Changes in Science, Cooperation, Power, Epistemics and Values
Risk Domain
Using AI systems to develop cyber weapons (e.g., by coding cheaper, more effective malware), develop new or enhance existing weapons (e.g., Lethal Autonomous Weapons or chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and high-yield explosives), or use weapons to cause mass harm.
Entity— Who or what caused the harm
Intent— Whether the harm was intentional or accidental
Timing— Whether the risk is pre- or post-deployment
Supporting Evidence (1)
1.
"For example, AI could speed up progress in biotechnology [52, 73], making it easier to engineer or synthesise dangerous pathogens with relatively little expertise and readily available materials. More speculatively, AI might enable progress towards atomically precise manufacturing (APM) technologies,6 which could make it substantially easier to develop dangerous weapons at scale,7 or even be misused to create tiny self-replicating machines which outcompete organic life and rapidly consume earth’s resources [59]."(p. 3)
Other risks from Clarke2023 (19)
Worsened conflict
6.4 Competitive dynamicsHumanOtherOther
Worsened conflict > AI enables development of weapons of mass destruction
4.2 Cyberattacks, weapon development or use, and mass harmHumanIntentionalPost-deployment
Worsened conflict > AI enables automation of military decision-making
5.2 Loss of human agency and autonomyAI systemUnintentionalPost-deployment
Worsened conflict > AI-induced strategic instability
5.2 Loss of human agency and autonomyAI systemUnintentionalPost-deployment
Worsened conflict > Resource conflicts driven by AI development
6.4 Competitive dynamicsOtherUnintentionalPre-deployment
Increased power concentration and inequality
6.1 Power centralization and unfair distribution of benefitsAI systemUnintentionalPost-deployment